Canada has spared the United States’ beverage-alcohol trade from its latest counterattack in Trump’s destructive, newly enflamed trade war. But don’t expect the stateside export ledger to stop bleeding red ink anytime soon. As far as American booze sales go, it’s likely to get worse before it gets better.

Last Friday, trade negotiations between the US and its northerly neighbor collapsed in cartoonishly stupid fashion after the Trump delegation tried to get its Canadian counterparts to drop the nation’s long-held, fiercely defended national requirement that goods and services be offered in both English and French. This has been described by stateside media as a “sticking point,” and by basically everybody north of the border as an extremely obvious third-rail issue that American negotiators would only reach for if they were rock-stupid or actively trying to make things worse. (The two MAGA genders.)

“[T]rying to add ‘no bilingual packaging’ to a trade deal with Canada at the 11th hour is hilarious, it's like trying to add ‘and ban handguns’ to the US side of the agreement,” wrote Bluesky user @jblainefoster. Another masterful gambit, tired of all this winning, et cetera.

After Trump’s trade toadies blew up the deal with their “Speak ‘Murican Dammit” clause, the administration vowed to enact the 50% tariffs on a wide swath of Canadian goods that the president had announced in mid-July and suspended while the talks were underway. Canadian booze is very much on Trump’s list. The good news for American wine and spirits makers—to the extent that any exists—is the fact that Canadian prime minister Mark Carney did not include booze on the list of ~875 US products to be subject to retaliatory tariffs starting September 8th. The bad news is: that’s not really going to matter. Here’s why.